Modeling for Effective Crop Disease Control: A Case Study for Banana Xanthomonas Wilt in Africa

Abstract

A fungal disease, (banana) Xanthomonas wilt (XW) is spreading from Eastern Africa to the rest of the continent, endangering the principal source of food and income for a hundred million people. The only measures that are currently known to be effective are cultural practices on the farm-level, and timely and sustained interventions on the policy-level. Potential consequences of alternative scenarios of using these measures on the continental scale have not yet been quantified. This study applies a novel integrated modeling framework that links application of the cultural practices and policy measures to the dynamics of XW spread, and the subsequent consequences for the agricultural sector and food security. The modeling framework links a mathematical model of XW spread at field level, with a global assessment of food-system consequences using a partial equilibrium model. The results show that over the 10-year frame, with no intervention, African XW prevalence could increase by 89%.