The application of decision analysis modelling for investment targeting

Abstract

In June of 2013, the Technical Consortium for Building Resilience in the Horn of Africa (TC) hosted a three-day workshop to convene key experts. The purpose of this meeting was to further examine the potential for application of decision analysis tools in measuring impact of investment, prioritization of investment and assessment of return on investment with respect to resilience. A pilot decision model (preferably for a portfolio of investment alternatives) was developed, with the aim of documenting the model and approach and providing a report by December 2013. The meeting focused on the following key activities: 1.1. Exposing the group to the Applied Information Economics Methods (0.5 day instruction). 1.2. Clarifying the decision problems to be addressed drawing on country plans. Chose one pilot decision problem for developing and demonstrating the overall approach (1 day). 1.3. Defining dimensions of resilience in relation to the decision problems and identifying variables to measure them (1 day) 1.4. Defining important variables for the models. 2. Identifying a core group (including relevant stakeholders) who will contribute to further model development and provision of estimates. 3. Providing calibration training to the modeling group and anyone who will be providing estimates. 4. Developing a pilot decision model (preferably for a portfolio of investment alternatives) to further develop the approach. Document the model and approach into a report. Following the workshop, an exercise was undertaken to employ the decision analysis modeling methodology presented in the meeting in prioritization of decisions for investments or projects in the Horn of Africa. This approach is described in the following terms of reference.