Wheat Production With Supplementary Irrigation in Two Hama Villages

Abstract

This paper examines whether the application of supplementary irrigation can eliminate the effect of variable annual rainfall and hence stabilize the yields, and production, of wheat. The information allows a comparison of a poor rainfall year (1978/79) with supplementary irrigation, with a good rainfall year (1979/80) when wheat was mainly rainfed. Section 1 presents the proportional areas under rainfed and irrigated wheat in the two years studied. The proportional area under irrigated wheat varies each year according to the rainfall received. The second section looks at inputs and yields of both rainfed and irrigated wheat, and the effect of irrigation on yields. In a dry year, the overall average output of irrigated wheat was more than double that of rainfed wheat, but in the good rainfall year rainfed yields alone were higher than the overall combined yields of the dry year. The application of supplementary irrigation, therefore, failed to overcome fluctuations in yield over the two years caused by variations in rainfall. However, within a single dry year, supplementary irrigation substantially modified the yield reductions caused by low rainfall. The third section shows how these fluctuating yields affect output and the physical flow of wheat. A model is developed to show the effect of irrigation on output in a poor year compared to a good year. The analysis indicates that in one village (IRR/01), the combined yield of 1978/79 could not have produced the output achieved in 1979/90 even if the total area under wheat had been irrigated, or unless irrigated yields could be increased by 90 percent. In the other village (IRR/09), for the overall output of 1978/79 to compare with the rainfed of 1978/80, a further 15 percent of the wheat area would need to be irrigated, or irrigated yields would have to be increased by 33 percent. In addition, it was shown that response, in terms of output, to a percent increase in the irrigated area of wheat was higher in a dry year than a good year. The fourth section, by combining physical and financial flows, shows how the variation in production affects the farmer's returns from wheat. The model developed in section 3 is used to examine the changes in net output over the two years and the effect of price changes. In 1979/80, a year of high wheat production, prices of wheat were lower. If data is adjusted for this, net outputs in the good rainfall year, 1979/80, are increased further. Appendices contain detailed data on wheat production in the two villages studied over the two years.