Food Security and Water Poverty in Central and West Asia and North Africa Region

Abstract

ll countries in Central and West Asia and North Africa (CWANA) region in general, and the WANA region in particular, have faced severe challenges in increasing their agricultural production over the last 40 years. This is mainly due to many factors, including a limited natural resource base of arable land and water, low and erratic rainfall with frequent drought, growing population, low rates of productivity growth, increased rural-urban migration, low public and private investments in rainfed areas, weak extension systems, inappropriate agricultural policies and low adoption rates of new technologies. CWANA achieved a 2.9% annual growth rate in cereal production during the 1962-2002 period. Most of the growth is attributed to productivity enhancement in the first place and to area expansion in the second place. Cereal yield and area grew by 1.5% and 1.3% during the same period, respectively. Likewise, the region has achieved growth in pulse production at an annual rate of 1.6%, which largely originated from area expansion. Only 20% of growth in pulses production is attributed to yield increase. The food consumption pattern is expected to change dramatically during the next 20 years in response to increases in population, per capita income, and changes in consumer preferences. Meat per capita consumption is projected to increase rapidly, by 29% for poultry and 19% for beef between 1997 and 2020. Per capita consumption of other livestock products will increase as well. Only the per capita consumption of two major cereal commodities, wheat, and maize, is projected to decrease by 2% and 16%, respectively. This reduction in wheat and maize per capita consumption will only slightly contribute to grain deficit reduction in the CWANA region. The total grain deficit in the CWANA region is expected to decrease from 46 million tons in 2002 to 35 million tons in 2020. Available information on the water poverty index (WPI) and its sub-indices are used to monitor the performance of scarce water in the CWANA region. They suggest that water resources are misused and not sustainably managed in the CWANA region. In addition, people in the region do not have adequate access to the available water resources. Food security indices were compared to the water poverty index using correlation and regression analyses. Results clearly show that a positive correlation is found between water scarcity and the food security index, suggesting that food security is associated with water availability. Regression analysis indicates that water poverty explains nearly 43% of the variation in food security. This study provides evidence of the importance of studying food security alongside water poverty in the CWANA region. Having water scarcity contributing to nearly half of the variation in food security will have important policy, research, and investment implications. Food insecurity is greatly explained by water poverty, and thus the two problems need to be addressed as interrelated and in an integrated approach. Both problems require immediate and equal attention at various policy and managerial levels.