Impact of fertilizer pricing policies on barley-livestock production systems in North-West Syria

Abstract

Small ruminant production systems in southern Mediterranean countries are largely dependent on raided barley as a source of feed. The adoption of fertilizer use in barley cropping in Syria has increased during the past decade because of subsidized fertilizer prices, the positive response of barley to fertilizer application, and consequent increase in producers' net benefits. This study examined the on-farm impact of the removal of subsidies in north-western Syria. ft used a systems policy model, which included a rainfall generator, a crop and optimum fertilizer use model, a livestock model, and a pricing model for inputs and outputs. Removal of fertilizer subsidies had a greater impact in the drier areas where rainfed fanning prevails (zone 3) and in areas where subsistence livestock production dominates (zones 4 and 5). Even though there is little evidence of fertilizer use in zones 4 and 5, farmers are likely to extend the barley frontier to meet increasing livestock feed requirements rather than produce feed with less fertilizer, thus aggravating the pressure on natural vegetation. The simulation approach followed in this study permits point-specific and aggregated analysis of state variables relevant to policy-makers. Mapping of trends and ratios of variables, and generation of new variables using maps allows visual appreciation of interactions.