Report on measurement of socio-economic impacts of price disturbances on dairy farm performances as affected by the Covid-19

Abstract

The COVID-19 event has been a severe crisis that has affected the economic, social and environmental environment in the majority of countries whatever their socioeconomic development. While most countries have attempted to developed emergency actions oriented to mitigate the health and social effects, less attention has been paid to the effects on agricultural production systems, especially on the South countries. However, these effects may have medium and long terms implications on the overall agri-food systems, especially in the developing or intermediate countries where agricultural services are less developed. The present research work on the measurement of socioeconomic impacts of price disturbances on dairy farm performances as affected by the Covid-19 crisis in 2020 aimed to contribute to this reflection. For that, this research proposed to use two approaches: 1) a household survey at the family farm level to analyze the declared and perceived impacts of the Covid-19 event on the agricultural activities by the family members; and 2) introduce the declared changes of prices and livestock management in the existing LSIPT Toolkit developed in Egypt to assess the medium-term effects on the dairy activity. The present analysis focuses on two zones of Egypt, Bani Suwaif governorate in the Old Lands and Al Buhaira in the New Lands. The analysis of the socio-economic impacts of the COVID-19 event in 2020 on the dairy farms in Egypt has allowed to assess the effects of the reduction of milk price and milk production due to the lockdown and the effects of the feed price increase and livestock destocking over the 20-years period (2014- 2033). The main results show an overall reduction of the livestock activity’ contribution to the family viability that will have some financial effect up to 2033, compared to a scenario without the event of Covid-19. This reduction of the livestock contribution to the financial viability at the family farm level is mainly explained by the reduction of the dairy benefit. Without some specific public intervention in the sector in regards to milk price policy or feed prices, the sector could know a progressive decline over the next decade.